Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of QFEX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by QFEX will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $50M | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| $100M | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| $300M | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| $80M | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| $200M | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| $500M | 22% YES | 78% NO |
QFEX is preparing to launch a native token, with traders currently pricing a 76% probability that the asset will achieve a fully diluted valuation exceeding a specified threshold within one day of going live. The FDV calculation uses total token supply multiplied by the traded price, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the day following public launch. Only an official token from QFEX qualifies; stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens and synthetic variants are excluded. The resolution window extends to 1 January 2028, providing substantial time for the launch event to occur.
Comparable token launches offer mixed precedent for interpreting the current probability. Major protocol tokens have frequently exceeded ambitious FDV targets within hours of trading, particularly when supported by established ecosystems and institutional participation. Conversely, launches from lesser-known projects or those facing regulatory uncertainty have often underperformed initial valuations. The 76% implied probability reflects confidence in QFEX's ability to achieve the specified FDV threshold, though this assumes successful execution of the launch itself—a non-trivial dependency given regulatory scrutiny of token offerings and technical execution risks.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding QFEX's launch timeline, token allocation structure and exchange listing agreements. The specific FDV threshold in the market title will determine whether the probability reflects achievable or stretch valuations. Early signals from institutional interest, regulatory clarity and market conditions in the weeks preceding launch will likely shift the probability materially. Current liquidity on Polymarket's order book reflects the 76% mark, though significant new information could shift positioning substantially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "QFEX FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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