Crypto

Trade: Fabric ($ROBO) FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Opened 27 January 2026 · Settles 1 January 2027 · 53 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fabric's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fabric (https://x.com/FabricFND) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $1.5M
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $0

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Market outcomes

$50M	100% YES	0% NO
$500M	0% YES	100% NO
$600M	0% YES	100% NO
$800M	0% YES	100% NO
$400M	0% YES	100% NO
$100M	100% YES	0% NO
$200M	100% YES	0% NO
$300M	100% YES	0% NO

Market context

Fabric, a governance token for a decentralised finance protocol, is expected to launch with public trading availability in the coming weeks. The market is pricing the probability that its fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of that launch event. FDV is calculated by multiplying total token supply by the traded price, meaning even modest price discovery can significantly influence whether the threshold is breached. The settlement window extends to 1 January 2027, allowing considerable time for the launch to occur and resolve.

Comparable token launches from established protocols show highly variable outcomes in the first 24 hours. Governance tokens from well-capitalised projects with existing user bases—such as Uniswap's UNI or Aave's AAVE—saw substantial FDV valuations immediately upon launch, whilst newer or less-established projects experienced more muted price action. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either strong conviction about Fabric's market positioning or limited trading activity setting the probability at extremes. Traders should note that early-stage token launches frequently experience volatile price discovery, and the specific threshold referenced in the title will determine whether this resolves affirmatively.

Key catalysts include any official announcement from Fabric regarding launch timing, details on token allocation and unlock schedules, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions in the days preceding launch. Token supply transparency and initial liquidity provision are critical factors affecting first-day FDV. Traders monitoring the Fabric social channels and announcements should watch for regulatory clarity or partnership news that could shift market expectations before the launch window opens.

Wikipedia Context

Fabricio Coloccini
Fabricio Tomás Coloccini is an Argentine former professional footballer who played as a centre-back. He is the current assistant coach of Fernando Gago for Universidad de Chile.
Fabricio Oberto
Fabricio Raúl Jesús Oberto is an Argentine-Italian color analyst and former professional basketball player. At 6 ft 10 in (2.08 m), he played as a center and power forward. With the LNB club Atenas, in his native Argentina, Oberto began playing professionally in 1993, and later played overseas with teams in Spain and Greece. In 2005, Oberto signed with the S
Fabrício Bruno
Fabrício Bruno Soares de Faria, known as Fabrício Bruno, is a Brazilian footballer who plays as centre back for Campeonato Brasileiro Série A club Cruzeiro and the Brazil national team.
Fabrício (footballer, born February 1990)
Fabrício Silva Dornellas is a Brazilian professional footballer who plays as either a central or left-sided defender for Volta Redonda.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Fabric ($ROBO) FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$1.5M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Fabric ($ROBO) FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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