Trade: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $28K
- Total Volume
- $672K
- 24h Volume
- $17K
- Open Interest
- $247K
Market outcomes
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | 65% YES | 36% NO |
Market context
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) seeks to establish regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrency markets under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission. The bill's passage would require approval from both the House and Senate before presidential signature by 31 December 2026. The current 65% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects moderate confidence in legislative completion within the two-year window, though the measure faces competing priorities in a divided Congress and potential shifts in regulatory appetite depending on administration positions.
Comparable crypto legislation offers mixed precedent. The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) advanced through the House in May 2024 but stalled in the Senate, illustrating how bipartisan support in one chamber does not guarantee passage. The Responsible Financial Innovation Act, introduced in 2022, similarly failed to reach a vote despite initial momentum. These cases suggest that crypto bills require sustained political will across both chambers and executive backing—conditions that can shift rapidly with electoral cycles or market events.
Key catalysts include the 119th Congress's legislative calendar, committee hearings on digital asset regulation, and statements from the SEC and CFTC regarding their preferred statutory authority. Market participants should monitor whether the bill gains co-sponsors beyond its current base and whether leadership in either chamber prioritises it for floor time. Recent volatility in cryptocurrency markets and any major exchange failures could either accelerate regulatory action or redirect legislative focus toward emergency measures rather than comprehensive clarity frameworks.
Wikipedia Context
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Clarity ActThe Clarity Act is legislation passed by the Parliament of Canada that established the conditions under which the Government of Canada would enter into negotiations that might lead to secession following such a vote by one of the provinces. The Clarity Bill (C-20) was tabled for first reading in the House of Commons on 13 December 1999. It was passed by the
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Clarence Clarity
Adam Mark Crisp, known by the stage name Clarence Clarity, is an English singer, songwriter, producer and musician. He has been praised for his unique, eclectic pop sound which was described by The Guardian as "funk played by a swarm of bees". In addition to his own music he has produced for acts including Rina Sawayama, Dorian Electra, and Sundara Karma.
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Clarity TourThe Clarity Tour was the second concert tour by German recording artist Kim Petras in support of her 2019 debut mixtape Clarity. The tour was announced by Petras via her social media accounts on 4 September 2019. It started on 21 October 2019 in Vancouver, Canada and concluded on 11 February 2020 in London, England.
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Clarity CapitalClarity Capital is an investment firm based in Tel Aviv, Israel. Founded in 2007, the firm serves high-net-worth families and institutions including arts, educational endowments, and philanthropic endowments. It invests in the public equity, fixed income, and alternative investment markets globally, managing over $1 billion in assets.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 65% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $154 if YES resolves true — a 54% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$672K in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $17K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 65%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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