Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <40 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 40-50 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 50-60 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 60-70 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 80-90 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 90-100 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 100-110 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 110-120 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the Binance SOL/USDT pair's closing price at noon ET on 6 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book positioning on Polymarket, where no traders are willing to back any price bracket at present valuations. With settlement nearly two years away, the market lacks active liquidity, which typically characterises long-dated crypto price prediction markets during periods of low speculative interest.
Historical precedent suggests that Solana's price volatility has ranged significantly across multi-year horizons. During 2021–2022, SOL traded from under $2 to peaks above $250 before declining sharply; subsequent recovery phases have shown both rapid rallies and extended consolidation periods. The current absence of bids indicates traders view the uncertainty as too broad to price meaningfully at this distance, or that capital is allocated elsewhere. Comparable long-dated crypto markets on Polymarket typically see order book formation only as settlement approaches.
Catalysts affecting Solana's trajectory through May 2026 include network upgrades, validator ecosystem developments, and macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite for digital assets. Regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies could materially influence positioning. Traders monitoring this market should track Solana Foundation roadmap updates and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, particularly around Bitcoin's trajectory, which historically correlates with altcoin valuations. The absence of current liquidity suggests meaningful order flow may emerge only within months of settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Solana price on May 6?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$17K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto prices contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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