Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures a five-minute window for Ethereum's price movement on 1 June 2026, specifically from 1:05 AM to 1:10 AM ET, with settlement determined by Chainlink's ETH/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The 0% implied probability reflects the current orderbook on Polymarket, where no traders are currently pricing in an upward move during this specific interval.
Five-minute price windows in crypto typically exhibit minimal directional bias outside of scheduled events or news releases. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short timeframes for assets like Ethereum often resolve based on microstructure dynamics—bid-ask spreads, order flow imbalances, and latency arbitrage—rather than fundamental catalysts. The absence of any YES bids at present indicates market participants view the probability of a price increase as negligible, though this reflects current sentiment rather than certainty given the narrow observation window.
Traders monitoring this market should note that early June 2026 falls outside any announced major Ethereum protocol upgrades or regulatory deadlines currently scheduled. Overnight Asian trading sessions (which would be active during the 1:05–1:10 AM ET window) occasionally generate volatility, particularly if macroeconomic data or Bitcoin price movements trigger repositioning. The Chainlink data feed's pricing methodology may also differ marginally from spot exchanges during low-liquidity periods, creating potential discrepancies between perceived market direction and actual settlement price.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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