Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | 32% YES | 68% NO |
A natural meteoroid striking Earth's atmosphere with explosive force equivalent to 5 kilotons of TNT or greater is a rare but documented phenomenon. The threshold of 5 kilotons represents roughly one-third the yield of the Hiroshima bomb and sits well above the typical detection threshold for global monitoring networks. Such impacts occur when a sufficiently large object—typically several metres in diameter—enters the atmosphere at hypersonic velocity and detonates before reaching the ground. The NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, which serves as the primary resolution source, has recorded bolide events since 1988, providing a baseline for frequency estimation.
Historical records show approximately one 5-kiloton-equivalent impact every 15 years globally, though the distribution is irregular. The 2013 Chelyabinsk event (approximately 440 kilotons) and the 2022 impact near Greenland (roughly 1 kiloton) demonstrate that detection and measurement capabilities have improved substantially. Over the past decade, annual detection rates have increased due to enhanced satellite monitoring and improved algorithms, yet events at precisely the 5-kiloton threshold remain infrequent enough that any single year carries modest baseline probability.
The current 31% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader assessment that 2026 carries elevated odds relative to simple historical averages. Traders should monitor announcements from NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office and updates to near-Earth object catalogues, particularly any revisions to 2026 close-approach predictions. The settlement window's tight closure on 31 December 2026 means late-year events will face scrutiny regarding measurement confirmation and official JPL repository updates, which occasionally lag initial detection by weeks.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "5kt meteor strike in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$299K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for climate science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 32%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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