Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit on May 9?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↓ 77,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 76,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 75,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 74,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 85,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 84,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 83,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 86,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Bitcoin's price movement on 9 May 2026 will be determined by the accumulated effect of macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and market sentiment across the intervening months. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price threshold being missed or insufficient liquidity at the current ask price to attract buyers. Order book depth and spread dynamics will shift as the settlement date approaches and new information enters the market.
Historical Bitcoin price action shows daily moves of 5–15% are routine during volatile periods, whilst moves exceeding 20% in a single day occur several times annually. The May 2021 crash saw Bitcoin fall from $64,000 to $30,000 over weeks; the 2023 banking crisis triggered sharp swings within days. A trader evaluating this market should consider whether the specified price threshold sits within normal volatility bands for that date or represents a tail-event scenario. Current positioning on Polymarket suggests market participants are pricing the outcome as either highly unlikely or simply untraded.
Key variables to monitor include Federal Reserve policy signals, inflation data releases, and major institutional Bitcoin holdings announcements. Regulatory clarity from the SEC on spot Bitcoin ETF approvals or enforcement actions could move markets sharply. Geopolitical events affecting energy costs—which influence mining profitability—and macroeconomic shocks remain unpredictable catalysts. As May 2026 approaches, order book liquidity will likely improve, potentially shifting the implied probability substantially from today's 0% reading.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$283K in lifetime turnover and $224K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $283K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: