Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 79,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,400 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 79,800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 81,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 81,400 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 81,800 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 82,200 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the BTC/USDT closing price for the 1-hour candle ending at 9AM ET on 8 May 2026, using Binance spot data. The current 100% implied probability reflects either an extremely tight price band relative to Bitcoin's volatility, or a strike price set substantially below current spot levels. With nearly two years until settlement, the probability anchoring suggests traders are pricing in either a floor level well-established by historical support, or the strike itself sits far enough below present levels that near-term downside would need to be severe to breach it.
Bitcoin's hourly volatility typically ranges between 0.5–2% during standard market hours, though this varies considerably with macroeconomic releases and geopolitical events. Historical precedent shows that single-hour candle closures rarely deviate more than 3–5% from the preceding day's range unless triggered by major news. The 100% reading on Polymarket's order book suggests either minimal liquidity at the current price, or the strike price carries such a wide margin of safety that counterparty risk is negligible from a directional standpoint.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and inflation data releases scheduled for early May 2026, as these typically drive broader risk-asset repricing. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and the US dollar index remains the primary catalyst framework. Any scheduled exchange maintenance on Binance during the settlement window would be material, though Binance publishes such notices weeks in advance. The order book depth at current odds will indicate whether this represents genuine conviction or thin liquidity masking true uncertainty.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin above ___ on May 8, 9AM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for bitcoin contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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