Trade: Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $15K
- Total Volume
- $691K
- 24h Volume
- $556
- Open Interest
- $34K
Market outcomes
| Sundar Pichai - Google | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Dan Clancy - Twitch | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Brian Armstrong - Coinbase | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Tim Cook - Apple | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Andy Jassy - Amazon | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Sam Altman - OpenAI | 17% YES | 83% NO |
Market context
The market concerns whether major technology company chief executives will announce their departure or be removed from their roles between mid-November 2025 and the end of 2026. The 8% implied probability reflects an expectation that involuntary or voluntary CEO transitions at large-cap tech firms remain relatively uncommon within any given two-year window, though the resolution criteria—triggered by announcement rather than effective date—creates a lower threshold than actual departure timing.
Historical precedent suggests CEO turnover at established technology giants occurs sporadically. Satya Nadella's appointment at Microsoft in 2014 followed years of strategic debate; Sundar Pichai's elevation to Alphabet CEO in 2019 represented planned succession rather than crisis. More recently, Intel's CEO transitions in 2023 and 2024 demonstrated that performance pressures and strategic recalibration can accelerate leadership changes, though these remain exceptional rather than routine. The current 8% probability on the order book reflects this baseline rarity, with traders pricing in both the structural stability of incumbent leadership and the possibility of unforeseen circumstances.
Traders should monitor quarterly earnings calls and strategic announcements, particularly around artificial intelligence investment commitments and shareholder activism. Regulatory developments—including potential antitrust actions or legislative changes affecting major platforms—could create pressure for leadership changes. Board composition changes and activist investor positions warrant attention, as do macroeconomic shifts affecting technology valuations. The announcement-triggered resolution means markets could move sharply on unexpected statements, independent of when any transition formally takes effect.
Wikipedia Context
-
Apollo 18 (album)Apollo 18 is the fourth studio album by American alternative rock duo They Might Be Giants, released in 1992. It was released through Elektra Records and was named after the canceled Apollo 18 mission. The album was also associated with International Space Year, for which They Might Be Giants were declared the official "musical ambassadors" by NASA.
-
In Which We ServeIn Which We Serve is a 1942 British propaganda war film directed by Noël Coward and David Lean, who made his debut as a director. It was made during the Second World War with the assistance of the Ministry of Information.
-
Which (command)
In computing, which is a command for various operating systems used to identify the location of executables. The command is available in Unix and Unix-like systems, the AROS shell, for FreeDOS and for Microsoft Windows. The functionality of the which command is similar to some implementations of the type command. POSIX specifies a command named command that
-
Benjamin WhichcoteBenjamin Whichcote was an English Establishment and Puritan priest, Provost of King's College, Cambridge and leader of the Cambridge Platonists. He held that man is the "child of reason" and so not completely depraved by nature, as Puritans held. He also argued for religious toleration.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Which CEOs will be out before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$691K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for big tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $556 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Which CEOs will be out before 2027?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: