Trade: Tony Awards: Best Play Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Play at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $968
- Total Volume
- $546
- 24h Volume
- $133
- Open Interest
- $526
Market outcomes
| The Balusters | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Giant | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Liberation | 83% YES | 17% NO |
| Little Bear Ridge Road | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Play A | — | |
| Play B | — | |
| Play C | — | |
| Play D | — | |
Market context
The 79th Annual Tony Awards ceremony takes place on 7 June 2026, honouring excellence in Broadway theatre across multiple categories. The Best Play award represents one of the ceremony's most prestigious honours, recognising outstanding new work in the dramatic genre. This particular market on Polymarket is pricing a specific contender at 9% implied probability, derived from the current order book depth and recent trading activity on the platform.
Historically, Best Play voting patterns at the Tonys reflect a combination of critical consensus, commercial success, and voter sentiment within the Broadway community. The award has favoured plays addressing contemporary themes whilst maintaining strong ensemble casts and production values. Recent ceremonies have seen competitive fields where frontrunners shifted based on late-season critical reassessments and guild voting patterns. The current 9% probability suggests the listed contender faces substantial competition from other nominees, positioning it as a secondary or tertiary choice among traders assessing the field.
Key catalysts for this market include the official Tony Awards nominations announcement, typically occurring in spring 2026, which will clarify the full competitive set and allow traders to calibrate relative probabilities. Industry publications including Variety and The Hollywood Reporter will publish detailed analysis of voter demographics and historical voting trends. The Broadway box office performance of nominated plays through May 2026 may influence perception of audience reception. Additionally, any major cast changes, critical reviews, or industry awards won by competing plays in the months preceding the ceremony could shift market pricing materially.
Wikipedia Context
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Tony AwardsThe Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, more commonly known as a Tony Award, recognizes excellence in live Broadway theatre. The awards are presented by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League at an annual ceremony in Manhattan. The ceremony is usually held in June.
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61st Tony AwardsThe 61st Annual Tony Award ceremony was held on June 10, 2007, at Radio City Music Hall, with CBS television broadcasting live. The cut-off date for eligibility was May 9, meaning that to be qualified for the 2006–2007 season, shows must have opened before or on this date.
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52nd Tony Awards
The 52nd Annual Tony Awards ceremony was held on June 7, 1998, at Radio City Music Hall and was broadcast by CBS television. A documentaries segment was telecast on PBS television. The ceremony was hosted by Rosie O'Donnell, who hosted a total of three times.
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Tony Award for Best Actress in a MusicalThe Tony Award for Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical is an honor presented at the Tony Awards, a ceremony established in 1947 as the Antoinette Perry Awards for Excellence in Theatre, to actresses for quality leading roles in a musical play, whether a new production or a revival. The awards are named after Antoinette Perry, an American actre
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Tony Awards: Best Play Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$546 in lifetime turnover and $968 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for awards contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $133 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Tony Awards: Best Play Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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