Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is named to the 2025-26 All-Rookie First Team. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If no official All-Rookie First Team is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cooper Flagg | 88% YES | 13% NO |
| Dylan Harper | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Cedric Coward | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Derik Queen | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Sion James | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Maxime Raynaud | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Kon Knueppel | 85% YES | 16% NO |
The NBA selects five players to its All-Rookie First Team annually, voted on by a panel of media members following the regular season. The 2025-26 season concludes in April 2026, with voting and announcement typically occurring in June. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 82% implied probability, reflecting market confidence that the listed player will be among the five selected.
Historically, All-Rookie First Team selection correlates strongly with playing time and statistical performance during a player's debut season. Since the award's inception in 1985-86, consensus top-five performers by minutes played and efficiency metrics have been named with high consistency. The 82% probability suggests traders view this player as a near-lock for the honour, positioning them within the expected statistical tier of first-team selections. Comparable recent seasons show that players averaging 20+ points or 10+ assists as rookies have secured first-team spots at rates exceeding 85%.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through the settlement window. The player's injury status and minutes allocation during the 2025-26 season will be critical; extended absences typically eliminate candidates regardless of per-game performance. Media coverage and beat reporter assessments in March and April 2026 will signal voting sentiment as the season concludes. The official NBA announcement, expected in mid-June 2026, provides final resolution. Any significant statistical decline or shift in playing time could shift the probability downward before voting occurs.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NBA: 2025-26 All-Rookie First Team" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for awards contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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