Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 21°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 22°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 23°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 24°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 25°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 26°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 27°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 28°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 8 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome for this market. Shenzhen's subtropical climate produces consistently warm conditions during early May, with historical highs typically ranging between 28°C and 32°C during this period. The settlement will reference Wunderground's historical weather data for the specific station, capturing the peak temperature across all times on that date.
The current order book reflects 0% implied probability, indicating no traders have positioned for any specific temperature range at present. This absence of trading activity is typical for weather markets settled far in advance, where uncertainty remains substantial and liquidity has not yet concentrated. Early May sits within Shenzhen's late spring season, following the onset of warmer air masses but preceding the more intense heat of summer months. Historical records show May temperatures at this location rarely exceed 35°C, though occasional heat waves can push readings higher.
Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of early-season heat waves affecting southern China. The East Asian summer monsoon onset timing and strength will influence whether temperatures trend toward typical ranges or exceed historical norms. Atmospheric pressure systems and tropical moisture availability in late April and early May will provide meaningful signals for positioning, though traditional weather forecasts typically gain reliability only within two weeks of the settlement date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 8?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$68K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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