Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether Hyperliquid's price will move upward or remain flat during a five-minute window on 6 May 2026 between 14:35 and 14:40 Eastern Time, as measured by Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to an upward move, reflecting either extreme bearish sentiment or minimal trading activity in this particular five-minute slice. Such compressed timeframes typically see sparse liquidity, meaning the implied probability may reflect thin order books rather than deep conviction from market participants.
Five-minute price movements in crypto assets are largely driven by microstructure dynamics—order flow imbalances, liquidation cascades, and algorithmic trading activity—rather than fundamental catalysts. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short timeframes show near-random walk behaviour, with roughly 50% of five-minute intervals closing higher than their open across major assets during normal market conditions. The current 0% probability is unusual for such a short window and warrants scrutiny of whether the market is simply illiquid or if there is specific downward pressure anticipated during that exact period.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's spot and perpetual markets in the hours preceding the settlement window for any announcements, exchange maintenance windows, or broader crypto market movements that might create directional bias. The resolution depends entirely on Chainlink's HYPE/USD feed, which may differ from other pricing sources during volatile periods. Execution risk and feed latency become material considerations in five-minute markets.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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