Trade: Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

0% YES 100% NO

Opened 8 May 2026 · Settles 9 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $0
Total Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $10

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Market outcomes

Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

0% YES

100% NO

Market context

This market tracks whether Ethereum's price according to Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream will be higher or flat at 9:15AM ET on 9 May 2026 compared to 9:10AM ET that same morning. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility during US morning trading hours, when institutional and retail activity typically intersects with European market overlap.

The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the extreme difficulty of predicting five-minute price movements with any statistical edge. Historical analysis of comparable ultra-short-window markets shows that such tight timeframes generate probabilities clustered near 50% when liquidity exists, as directional conviction becomes indistinguishable from noise. The current zero probability suggests either minimal order book depth at the extremes or that early traders have positioned defensively, awaiting more liquidity before committing capital to either side.

Traders monitoring this window should track scheduled economic data releases and cryptocurrency-specific announcements in the hours preceding 9:10AM ET. Ethereum's price action typically responds to broader equity futures performance during morning US hours, particularly following overnight Asian session closes and European morning sessions. Any major regulatory announcements, exchange-related news, or shifts in Bitcoin's trajectory could create directional pressure, though five-minute resolution windows often see mean-reversion behaviour that obscures longer-term trends. Chainlink's data feed itself carries no known scheduled maintenance during this period.

Wikipedia Context

Ethereum
Ethereum is a decentralized blockchain with smart contract functionality. Ether is the native cryptocurrency of the platform. Among cryptocurrencies, ether is second only to bitcoin in market capitalization. It is open-source software.
Ethereum Classic
Ethereum Classic is a blockchain-based distributed computing platform that offers smart contract (scripting) functionality. Ethereum Classic was created in a hard fork with the mainline Ethereum blockchain, and maintains the original, unaltered ledger prior to the attempt to reverse a hacking attack on the Ethereum-based DAO in July 2016. It is now the large

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 0% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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