Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether Dogecoin's price in US dollars will be higher or lower during a five-minute window on 7 May 2026, from 19:15 to 19:20 ET, as measured by Chainlink's DOGE/USD data feed. The settlement hinges on comparing the price at 19:15 ET against the price at 19:20 ET; any upward movement or flat price resolves to "Up", whilst any decline resolves to "Down". The Chainlink oracle serves as the sole authoritative source, meaning spot market prices or other exchange data are irrelevant to resolution.
The current order book on Polymarket shows zero implied probability for "Up", reflecting a market consensus that downward movement is overwhelmingly favoured during this specific five-minute interval. This extreme skew is unusual for such a short timeframe, where intraday volatility typically creates meaningful two-way pricing. Historical patterns in micro-timeframe Dogecoin trades show that five-minute windows rarely exhibit directional certainty; even during periods of sustained downtrends, brief consolidations or technical bounces occur frequently enough to generate non-trivial probabilities for upside.
Traders should monitor any scheduled announcements or social media activity from major Dogecoin stakeholders in the hours preceding the window, as sentiment shifts can influence short-term price action. Broader cryptocurrency market conditions on 7 May—particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum movements—typically drive Dogecoin's intraday direction. The absence of any known catalyst scheduled for that specific five-minute window suggests the current probability reflects either technical positioning or illiquidity rather than fundamental conviction about directional bias.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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