Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Dogecoin's price movement will be assessed over a five-minute window on 7 May 2026 between 1:55 and 2:00 AM Eastern Time, using Chainlink's DOGE/USD data feed as the settlement source. The market resolves to "Up" if the closing price meets or exceeds the opening price; otherwise it settles "Down". The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability assigned to an upward movement, suggesting traders expect a price decline or flat performance during this specific interval.
Five-minute cryptocurrency price windows are inherently volatile and difficult to predict with precision. Historical analysis of similar short-duration markets shows that ultra-brief timeframes often produce random-walk behaviour, where directional conviction becomes harder to establish than across longer periods. The 0% implied probability on the "Up" side indicates either strong bearish sentiment entering this window or a reflection of broader Dogecoin weakness at the time the market was created. Comparable micro-duration markets typically see probability distributions that favour neither direction heavily unless there is scheduled news or technical breakdown occurring.
Traders should monitor whether any announcements or exchange maintenance windows coincide with the settlement period, as these can artificially suppress or inflate prices on specific data feeds. Chainlink's DOGE/USD stream may diverge slightly from spot market prices during low-liquidity hours, particularly around 2 AM ET when US trading volume typically contracts. The five-minute window's brevity means that even minor order flow imbalances or feed latency could influence settlement, making the current 0% probability a statement about expected direction rather than certainty.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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