Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on whether BNB's price on the Chainlink BNB/USD data stream rises or holds steady during a five-minute window on 4 May 2026 between 6:50AM and 6:55AM ET. The 0% implied probability reflects the order book's current positioning, where no traders are willing to back an upward move during this specific intraday interval.
Five-minute price movements in major cryptocurrency assets typically exhibit low predictability given the noise inherent in short-term trading activity. Historical data on BNB shows that such micro-timeframe intervals are heavily influenced by order flow, market maker positioning, and algorithmic trading rather than fundamental catalysts. The extreme probability skew toward "Down" suggests either strong conviction among market participants that downward pressure will dominate this window, or minimal liquidity on the "Up" side of the order book, making the probability estimate unreliable as a forecast.
Traders should monitor BNB's broader price action in the hours preceding the settlement window, as any significant volatility or directional momentum could shift microstructure dynamics. Cryptocurrency markets operate continuously, and any announcements regarding Binance operations, regulatory developments, or macroeconomic data releases scheduled near that timeframe could influence trading behaviour. The reliance on Chainlink's specific data feed rather than spot exchange prices means traders must account for potential feed latency or discrepancies between Chainlink's aggregated price and actual exchange quotes during the five-minute interval.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$161 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for up or down contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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