Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET | 28% YES | 72% NO |
BNB is trading around the $600–$620 range as of early May 2026, with the market assessing whether the Binance-native token will close a fifteen-minute window higher than its opening price on 11 May at 3:00 PM ET. The settlement relies on Chainlink's BNB/USD data stream rather than spot exchange prices, introducing a potential basis between oracle and market pricing that traders should account for. Current order book activity on Polymarket reflects a 50–50 split, suggesting genuine uncertainty about directional momentum during this specific intraday window.
Short-term BNB price action typically correlates with broader crypto market sentiment and Binance-specific developments. In April 2026, regulatory scrutiny around centralised exchanges and staking mechanisms continued to weigh on sentiment, whilst Bitcoin's performance remained the primary driver of altcoin volatility. Traders should monitor any announcements from Binance regarding compliance updates or product launches in the hours before the settlement window, as these can trigger sharp intraday moves. Additionally, US equity market opens and Fed-related commentary often influence risk appetite for digital assets during morning US trading hours.
The even probability split reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting fifteen-minute price action in a market where Chainlink's oracle update frequency and latency can affect settlement precision. Traders should consider both the liquidity depth on Polymarket's order book and the historical volatility of BNB during similar time windows, particularly around US market open when volume and volatility typically spike.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for up or down contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 28%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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