Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Andy Burnham ceases to be Mayor of Greater Manchester for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Andy Burnham's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? | 21% YES | 79% NO |
Andy Burnham, who has served as Mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017, could cease to hold that position before the end of May 2026. The 23% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects traders' assessment that departure—whether through resignation, removal, or other means—remains unlikely over the next eighteen months, though not negligible. The market's construction treats any announcement of resignation or removal as immediate resolution to Yes, regardless of the effective date, which compresses the relevant timeframe for resolution.
Burnham's tenure has been marked by high-profile advocacy on devolution and public spending, positioning him as a prominent figure within Labour politics. Comparable cases of English metro mayors departing office prematurely remain rare; most serve their full terms. The last significant forced exit was Andy Street's loss of the West Midlands mayoralty in 2022 after a single term, though that followed an electoral defeat rather than mid-term removal. Burnham's strong electoral performance in 2021 and absence of immediate political vulnerability suggest the baseline expectation of continuity, anchoring the probability below 25%.
Traders should monitor developments around Greater Manchester's devolution negotiations, which have periodically created friction with central government, and any shifts in Burnham's national Labour positioning. His stated ambitions regarding higher office—including previous speculation about parliamentary candidacy—could theoretically prompt departure, though no concrete timeline exists. Local authority funding settlements and mayoral reshuffles within Labour's broader governance structure represent secondary catalysts. The market's current pricing reflects a stable political environment absent fresh triggering events.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for uk contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $928 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 21%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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