Trade: Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (May 11 - 16)
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the White House Press Office calls a full lid by 6:30 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $570
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| May 15 | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| May 14 | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| May 11 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| May 12 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| May 13 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| May 16 | 31% YES | 70% NO |
Market context
The White House Press Office's declaration of a full lid—signalling the conclusion of the President's public schedule for the day—remains a relatively infrequent occurrence under the current administration. A full lid differs materially from partial lids or lunch breaks; it represents an explicit statement that no further official activities, statements, or public appearances will occur before midnight. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 37% implied probability of such a declaration by 6:30 PM ET across the May 11–16 window, suggesting traders assess this as an unlikely but non-negligible event.
Historical precedent shows full lids are called sporadically and often correlate with specific circumstances: significant health events, major weather disruptions, or days with minimal scheduled public activity. Under previous administrations, full lids occurred roughly 5–10% of operational days, though frequency varies considerably by presidency and season. The current administration has historically called full lids at lower rates than predecessors, typically reserving them for extraordinary circumstances rather than routine scheduling gaps. This baseline informs the 37% probability, which implies traders expect either an atypical schedule or an unforeseen disruption during this five-day window.
Traders should monitor the official White House schedule releases, any announced travel or events, and breaking news regarding presidential health or security matters. Press briefing announcements and early-morning schedule confirmations typically signal whether a full lid becomes probable by evening. Recent reporting from Reuters and the Associated Press on White House operations suggests no extraordinary circumstances are anticipated for mid-May, anchoring expectations toward the historical baseline of infrequent full lids.
Wikipedia Context
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White HouseThe White House is the official residence and workplace of the president of the United States. Located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW in Washington, D.C., it has served as the residence of every U.S. president since John Adams in 1800 when the national capital was moved from Philadelphia. The White House is also a metonym for the Executive Office of the Pres
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White House State Ballroom
The White House State Ballroom is part of a planned new East Wing for the White House, the official residence of the president of the United States. The new East Wing will replace the original, which was torn down in October 2025 in preparation for the new wing's construction. The site, in Washington, D.C., has been under construction since September 2025. A
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White House Farm murdersThe White House Farm murders took place near the village of Tolleshunt D'Arcy, Essex, England, during the night of 6–7 August 1985. Nevill and June Bamber were shot and killed inside their farmhouse at White House Farm along with their adopted daughter, Sheila Caffell, and Sheila's six-year-old twin sons, Daniel and Nicholas Caffell. The only surviving membe
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White House Press SecretaryThe White House press secretary is a senior White House official whose primary responsibility is to act as spokesperson for the executive branch of the United States federal government, especially with regard to the president, senior aides and executives, as well as government policies.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (May 11 - 16)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $570 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (May 11 - 16)"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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