Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? | 19% YES | 82% NO |
The federal government is scheduled to release sealed files from the Jeffrey Epstein investigation on 19 December 2025. This market resolves affirmatively only if those newly disclosed documents directly trigger criminal charges or indictments against any individual by year-end 2026. The 19% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism that fresh documentary evidence will generate prosecutions within a thirteen-month window, despite the high-profile nature of the case.
Historical precedent suggests caution about expecting rapid prosecutions from document releases. The Panama Papers (2016) and Paradise Papers (2017) generated extensive investigations but relatively few criminal charges in the United States within comparable timeframes. Epstein himself died in custody in 2019, limiting direct prosecution opportunities. Previous charges against associates like Ghislaine Maxwell (2020) relied on evidence already in investigative hands rather than newly released materials. The narrow causation requirement—that charges must be *attributed to* information in the December 2025 release—creates an additional legal and evidentiary hurdle beyond mere involvement in Epstein-related crimes.
Traders should monitor the actual content of the December release, as redactions and scope will determine investigative potential. Federal prosecutors' public statements following the disclosure will signal enforcement intent. State-level jurisdictions, particularly New York and Florida, may pursue cases independently. The resolution hinges on prosecutorial attribution language in charging documents, making the precise wording of any indictment critical. With thirteen months from release to deadline, the timeline is compressed for grand jury proceedings and formal charges.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$129K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $66 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 19%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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