Trade: What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $13K
- Total Volume
- $21K
- 24h Volume
- $4K
- Open Interest
- $13K
Market outcomes
| Swapped | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Apex | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Gladiator II | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| The Silent Twins | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Black Phone 2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Movie A | — | |
| Movie C | — | |
| Movie E | — | |
Market context
Netflix will publish its updated Top 10 Movies ranking for the United States on Tuesday, 12 May 2026, reflecting viewership data from the preceding week. The #2 position on this list represents the second-most-watched film by total views across the country during that measurement period. Settlement depends on Netflix's official update appearing on top10.netflix.com by 15:00 ET on the specified date, with a backstop resolution to "Other" if no update materialises by 23:59 ET on 15 May.
The 1% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders assess an extremely low likelihood that any single film will occupy the #2 slot. This pricing reflects the fragmented nature of Netflix's film viewership, where multiple titles typically compete for top positions week to week. Historical Netflix charts show the #2 position rotates frequently amongst newly released films, established franchises, and catalogue titles gaining momentum. The specificity required—predicting not merely a top performer but precisely the second-ranked film—creates substantial forecasting difficulty compared to betting on the #1 position.
Traders should monitor Netflix's release schedule for the week ending 11 May, as new major releases significantly influence ranking volatility. Existing chart-toppers and their trajectory matter considerably; a film holding #1 may push competitors into #2, whilst a new release could displace the current second-place title entirely. Industry tracking services and Netflix's own promotional announcements typically signal anticipated releases. The settlement window's tight timeframe—resolving within hours of the official update—leaves minimal room for interpretation disputes.
Wikipedia Context
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Dog Man StarDog Man Star is the second album by English alternative rock band Suede, released in October 1994 on Nude Records. The album was recorded in London at Master Rock studios in early 1994, and was produced by Ed Buller. It was the last Suede album to feature guitarist Bernard Butler; growing tensions between him and singer Brett Anderson ended with Butler leavi
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Title 2 of the United States Code
Title 2 of the United States Code outlines the role of Congress in the United States Code.
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United States Reports, volume 2This is a list of all the United States Supreme Court cases from volume 2 of the United States Reports, decided by the Supreme Court of the United States from 1791 to 1793. Case reports from other federal and state tribunals also appear in 2 U.S..
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Rack unitA rack unit is a unit of measure defined as 1+3⁄4 inches (44.45 mm). It is most frequently used as a measurement of the overall height of 19-inch and 23-inch rack frames, as well as the height of equipment that mounts in these frames, whereby the height of the frame or equipment is expressed as multiples of rack units. For example, a typical full-size rack c
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$21K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for top netflix contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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