Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Lars Goran Verwerft and Ramazan Kaan Oktay in the ITF Men Kayseri, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lars Goran Verwerft' if Lars Goran Verwerft advances against Ramazan Kaan Oktay. This market will resolve to 'Ramazan Kaan Oktay' if Ramazan Kaan Oktay advances against Lars Goran Verwerft. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kayseri: Lars Goran Verwerft vs Ramazan Kaan Oktay | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Lars Goran Verwerft faces Ramazan Kaan Oktay in an ITF Men's tournament match scheduled for 28 May 2026 in Kayseri, Turkey. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Verwerft's advancement, indicating traders have priced in an expectation of his victory with no meaningful uncertainty. This extreme probability typically emerges when one player holds a substantial ranking advantage, recent form edge, or when the matchup presents a clear technical mismatch on the ITF circuit.
ITF Men's matches at this level show considerable variance in outcomes, particularly when lower-ranked players meet. Historical data from comparable ITF tournaments suggests that when implied probabilities reach 95% or higher, the favourite fails to advance in roughly 3–5% of cases, accounting for injuries, withdrawals, and unexpected performances. Verwerft's career trajectory and current standing relative to Oktay's ranking would need to support such a decisive probability differential for the market pricing to reflect genuine expectation rather than thin liquidity.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any player withdrawal announcements through the ITF's official schedule in the week preceding 28 May. Injury reports or late scratches could trigger rapid repricing. The settlement window extends to 4 June 2026, providing a seven-day buffer for match completion; however, any delay beyond that threshold without a result would force a 50-50 resolution. Current market depth and order book activity will determine whether this probability holds or adjusts as the match date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kayseri: Lars Goran Verwerft vs Ramazan Kaan Oktay" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$30 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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