Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Martina Okalova and Lillian Santos in the ITF Women Wichita, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Martina Okalova' if Martina Okalova advances against Lillian Santos. This market will resolve to 'Lillian Santos' if Lillian Santos advances against Martina Okalova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Wichita: Martina Okalova vs Lillian Santos | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Martina Okalova and Lillian Santos are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament in Wichita on 27 May 2026. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability for Okalova's advancement, as shown in Polymarket's order book. This extreme pricing suggests either overwhelming confidence in Okalova's superiority or insufficient liquidity to move the odds, a common dynamic in lower-tier tennis markets where trading volume remains thin.
ITF Women's events typically feature significant variance in match outcomes, particularly at the lower-ranked levels where both players likely compete. Historical precedent from comparable ITF tournaments shows that matches between players separated by modest ranking gaps frequently produce upsets, with unseeded or lower-ranked competitors advancing in roughly 20–30% of encounters. The current 100% probability substantially underweights this baseline volatility, suggesting the market may be overweighting Okalova's credentials or reflecting a lack of contrarian positioning.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals through the ITF's official schedule updates, typically finalised 48 hours before play. Player injury reports or recent match results in the week preceding 27 May will provide concrete data to reassess the odds. The settlement window closes 3 June 2026, allowing seven days for match completion; delays beyond this trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating tail risk for either side. Current pricing leaves minimal margin for error and suggests limited genuine conviction from the market.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Wichita: Martina Okalova vs Lillian Santos" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$101 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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