Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Manish Sureshkumar and Ilya Ivashka in the Bengaluru 2, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Manish Sureshkumar' if Manish Sureshkumar advances against Ilya Ivashka. This market will resolve to 'Ilya Ivashka' if Ilya Ivashka advances against Manish Sureshkumar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bengaluru 2: Manish Sureshkumar vs Ilya Ivashka | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Manish Sureshkumar vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Manish Sureshkumar vs Ilya Ivashka Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Manish Sureshkumar vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Manish Sureshkumar vs Ilya Ivashka Set 1 Winner | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Manish Sureshkumar vs Ilya Ivashka Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| Bengaluru 2: Manish Sureshkumar vs Ilya Ivashka Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Manish Sureshkumar, an Indian tennis player ranked outside the ATP top 200, faces Belarusian Ilya Ivashka in the Bengaluru 2 tournament scheduled for 14 May 2026. Ivashka holds a career-high ranking in the low 30s and has competed regularly on the ATP circuit, making him the substantial favourite in this matchup. The 16% implied probability for Sureshkumar reflects the significant disparity in professional experience and ranking between the two players.
Ivashka's recent form and tournament participation provide the primary baseline for assessing this fixture. He has maintained consistent ATP-level competition over recent seasons, whilst Sureshkumar's profile suggests limited exposure to players of Ivashka's calibre. Historical patterns in lower-tier ATP events show that ranking gaps of this magnitude typically correlate with win probabilities heavily favoring the higher-ranked player, often in the 80–85% range. The current 16% probability on Polymarket's order book reflects some modest expectation of an upset, potentially accounting for home-court advantage factors or specific surface conditions that might favour Sureshkumar.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals, as the settlement window extends to 21 May 2026—allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date. Injury announcements or changes to either player's participation status would materially shift the probability. Surface conditions at the Bengaluru venue and any recent match results from either player in the weeks preceding the fixture will provide concrete data points for reassessing the current odds.
Bengaluru Ganesh Utsava, It all started with the enthusiasm of a handful of youths. They were searching for a forum to involve themselves and share their thoughts and enthusiasm. Urge of the youth mooted Shri Vidyaranya Vichara Vinimaya Kannadigara Sangha, later transformed as Shri Vidyaranya Yuvaka Sangha. Ever since, celebration of Ganesha Utsava was one o
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bengaluru 2: Manish Sureshkumar vs Ilya Ivashka" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$197 in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $197 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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