Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified company publicly and officially announces that it has closed its next funding round by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must explicitly confirm that a new funding round has been closed, either through an official announcement by the specified company (e.g., via press release) or its investors, a regulatory filing, or a consensus of credible media reporting. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 85% YES | 15% NO |
| December 31 | 95% YES | 6% NO |
Anthropic, the AI safety-focused research company founded in 2021, will need to announce a closed funding round by the end of 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The company has raised substantial capital across multiple rounds, most recently securing $5 billion in Series C funding announced in October 2024, valuing the firm at $20 billion. The current 85% implied probability on Polymarket reflects trader conviction that another funding announcement is likely within the next two years, though the company has not publicly signalled imminent fundraising plans.
Historical precedent suggests well-capitalised AI companies typically space funding rounds 12–24 months apart, though timelines vary considerably based on burn rate and strategic objectives. Anthropic's previous rounds—including a $300 million Series B in 2023 and the October 2024 Series C—occurred roughly annually, establishing a pattern that informs the market's high confidence. However, the substantial Series C injection may extend the interval before capital needs drive another announcement, introducing material uncertainty into the settlement window.
Traders should monitor Anthropic's operational announcements, product releases, and any statements regarding capital allocation or expansion plans. Industry reports on AI company funding trends and macroeconomic conditions affecting venture capital will provide contextual signals. The market's order book currently reflects the consensus view, though the two-year window leaves considerable room for revised expectations as new information emerges about the company's growth trajectory and capital requirements.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Anthropic next funding round closed by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $24 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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