Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the VCT 2026: Americas League Stage 1 tournament, currently scheduled for April 10th - May 24th, 2026. If this tournament is postponed, canceled, or a winner has not been declared by June 7th, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Riot Games. However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/valorant/VCT/2026/Americas_League/Stage_1) may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| FURIA | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| G2 Esports | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| KRÜ Esports | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Cloud9 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Evil Geniuses | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| LOUD | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| NRG | 47% YES | 53% NO |
Valorant Champions Tour 2026 will run its Americas regional league stage from 10 April through 24 May, with the winner determined across a series of matches featuring North and South American franchises. The tournament structure mirrors previous VCT seasons, where regional league stages serve as qualification and seeding mechanisms for international events. Riot Games' official tournament portal and broadcast channels will be the authoritative source for results, though the market permits resolution via credible reporting consensus if primary sources become unavailable.
The 47% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty across the field of contenders. Historical VCT Americas outcomes show dominance concentrated among a small number of organisations—teams like FaZe Clan, Leviatán, and Guard have cycled through strong performances—but roster changes, coaching adjustments, and meta shifts between now and April create material variance. No single favourite has crystallised at prohibitive odds, suggesting traders perceive multiple viable winners with roughly 15–25% individual probabilities.
Key catalysts include roster announcements and transfers through early 2026, which typically conclude by February and reshape competitive balance. Patch changes from Riot's balance team can disproportionately favour certain team compositions. The schedule's exact format—whether round-robin, group stage, or modified structure—will be confirmed closer to the event start date and may affect which teams' strengths are amplified. Any postponement beyond the 7 June resolution deadline triggers an "Other" settlement, a tail risk worth monitoring given esports' vulnerability to technical or organisational disruptions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "VCT 2026: Americas League Stage 1 Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $21 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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