Trade: Motherwell FC vs. Celtic FC - More Markets
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Scottish Premiership game, scheduled for May 13 at 3:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $35K
- Total Volume
- $222
- 24h Volume
- $222
- Open Interest
- $262
Market outcomes
| O/U 4.5 | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Both Teams to Score | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| Motherwell FC (-1.5) | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Celtic FC (-1.5) | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| Motherwell FC (-2.5) | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Celtic FC (-2.5) | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 84% YES | 17% NO |
Market context
Motherwell FC will host Celtic FC on 13 May 2026 in a Scottish Premiership fixture scheduled for 15:00 GMT. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 20% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of this specific market condition materialising by the settlement deadline at 19:00 GMT that evening.
Historical context for Scottish Premiership fixtures shows that late-season May matches often carry reduced liquidity and lower trading volumes compared to autumn and winter fixtures. Celtic, as the dominant force in Scottish football over recent seasons, typically commands stronger backing in prediction markets regardless of opponent. Motherwell's home advantage at Fir Park has historically provided modest support in similar matchups, though Celtic's superior squad depth and European competition experience generally outweighs venue effects in market pricing.
Key catalysts for traders include team news releases in the week preceding the match, particularly injury confirmations or squad rotation announcements from either club. Celtic's involvement in European competitions could influence squad selection and fatigue levels heading into May. Weather conditions at Fir Park and any late fixture rescheduling announcements would also move the order book. The settlement window closes three hours after full-time, allowing time for official match data confirmation but limiting post-match trading opportunities.
Wikipedia Context
-
Motherwell F.C.Motherwell Football Club is a Scottish professional football club based in Motherwell, North Lanarkshire, which plays in the Scottish Premiership. Motherwell have not dropped out of the top flight of Scottish football since 1985, and have lifted one trophy in that time – the Scottish Cup in 1991.
-
Motherwell F.C. Women
Motherwell Football Club Women is a Scottish women's football team based in Motherwell, North Lanarkshire. They are members of the Scottish Women's Premier League (SWPL) and currently compete in its top tier, SWPL1, since winning SWPL2 in 2018. For the 2020-21 season are playing their home matches at the Excelsior Stadium in Airdrie, North Lanarkshire.
-
Robert Motherwell
Robert Motherwell was an American abstract expressionist painter, printmaker, and editor of The Dada Painters and Poets: an Anthology. He was one of the youngest of the New York School, which also included Willem de Kooning, Jackson Pollock, and Mark Rothko.
-
Motherwell and Wishaw (Scottish Parliament constituency)Motherwell and Wishaw is a burgh constituency of the Scottish Parliament covering part of the council area of North Lanarkshire. It elects one Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) by the plurality method of election. Under the additional-member electoral system used for elections to the Scottish Parliament, it is also one of nine constituencies in the Cen
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Motherwell FC vs. Celtic FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$222 in lifetime turnover and $35K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $222 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Motherwell FC vs. Celtic FC - More Markets"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: