Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game between CD Comerciantes Unidos and CD Garcilaso, scheduled for May 25, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CD Comerciantes Unidos | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| CD Garcilaso | 49% YES | 51% NO |
CD Comerciantes Unidos will host CD Garcilaso in Peru's Liga 1 on 25 May 2026, with this market settling on the halftime scoreline. The fixture kicks off at 4:30 PM ET, with the settlement window closing at 20:30 UTC that same day. Halftime markets in Peruvian football typically reflect the tactical approach of both sides and their recent form in the opening 45 minutes, where defensive solidity often determines early outcomes.
The current 49% probability for a Comerciantes Unidos halftime win on Polymarket's order book reflects relatively balanced expectations between the two clubs. Historically, Liga 1 halftime results show home advantage carries modest weight—roughly 3–5 percentage points above neutral—though this varies significantly by team quality and recent performance. Garcilaso's away record and Comerciantes Unidos' home setup will be the primary drivers of how the market reprices from its current midpoint. Recent Liga 1 seasons have seen halftime draws occur in approximately 28–32% of matches, with home and away wins splitting the remainder unevenly depending on squad depth and injury status.
Traders should monitor team news and lineup confirmations in the 48 hours before kickoff, as absences of key midfielders or defenders can shift halftime dynamics considerably. Weather conditions in Peru's altitude zones can also affect early-game tempo. The order book depth will likely tighten as match day approaches, with sharp traders adjusting positions based on final squad sheets and any late tactical adjustments announced by either manager.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://liga1.pe/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. CD Garcilaso - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $269 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://liga1.pe/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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