Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for May 8 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| NRFI | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Spread -3.5 | — | |
| Spread -6.5 | — | |
| O/U 17.5 | — | |
| O/U 19.5 | — | |
| O/U 20.5 | — | |
| Spread -1.5 | — | |
The Seattle Mariners face the Chicago White Sox in an MLB regular season game scheduled for 8 May at 7:40 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket shows a 100% implied probability for a Mariners victory, indicating the market is pricing this as a near-certain outcome. This extreme skew reflects either substantial information asymmetry or a liquidity constraint limiting the ability to express contrarian positions effectively.
The Mariners have historically performed well against the White Sox in recent seasons, though regular season matchups between these franchises carry inherent variance. The 100% probability is notable given that even heavily favoured teams in MLB rarely exceed 90% implied probability in efficient markets; such extremes typically emerge when order book depth is shallow or when a single large position dominates the available liquidity. Historical precedent suggests that when single-game baseball markets reach these levels, they often reflect either genuine information (such as confirmed pitcher injuries or roster absences) or temporary imbalances that correct as additional traders enter.
Traders should monitor official roster announcements and starting pitcher confirmations through 7 May, as these remain the primary catalysts affecting game outcomes. Weather conditions at the venue and any late-breaking injury reports could shift the probability materially if they affect either team's composition. The settlement window extends to 15 May, allowing for rescheduling if weather postponement occurs. Current market depth should be evaluated carefully before entering positions, as the extreme probability may reflect genuine information or may simply indicate thin liquidity awaiting additional market participants.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$409K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $400K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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