Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 6 at 4:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bolivia (-1.5) | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Scotland (-1.5) | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Bolivia (-2.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Scotland (-2.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
Bolivia and Scotland are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 6 June 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices the YES outcome at 41%, reflecting market participants' assessment of whether additional markets will be created for this fixture. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity as participants weigh the likelihood of supplementary betting opportunities beyond the primary match outcomes.
International Friendlies typically generate secondary markets when fixtures involve nations with substantial betting populations or when matches carry qualifying-round implications. Bolivia and Scotland have limited historical precedent for dense market creation; neither nation commands the liquidity or interest that major European or South American derbies attract. The 41% probability suggests traders perceive moderate-to-low likelihood of additional markets materialising, consistent with how niche international friendlies are historically treated on prediction platforms.
Key catalysts include official confirmation of team lineups and any late-stage injury announcements, which could alter perceived match significance and thus market appetite. Polymarket's market creation depends partly on user demand and platform operator discretion; traders should monitor whether either nation's federation announces squad details or whether media coverage intensifies in the weeks preceding the fixture. The settlement window closing on 6 June at 20:00 UTC means the resolution will occur shortly after the match concludes, leaving minimal window for post-match market creation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bolivia vs. Scotland - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: