Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Premier League game, scheduled for May 10 at 9:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Burnley FC (-1.5) | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Aston Villa FC (-1.5) | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| Burnley FC (-2.5) | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Aston Villa FC (-2.5) | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 78% YES | 23% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
Burnley FC and Aston Villa FC are scheduled to meet on 10 May 2026 in a Premier League fixture. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on that date, capturing the outcome of the 09:00 ET kick-off. Current order book activity on Polymarket has established a 5% implied probability for the YES outcome, reflecting how traders are pricing the specific condition tied to this match at present.
Historical precedent suggests that late-season Premier League fixtures between mid-table and upper-mid-table sides often trade with wide probability ranges depending on team form, injury status, and remaining fixtures. Burnley and Aston Villa have occupied varying positions in recent seasons; Aston Villa's European qualification campaigns have occasionally affected squad rotation decisions in May, whilst Burnley has faced promotion and relegation pressure at different points. The current 5% probability indicates traders are pricing a relatively unlikely scenario, though the exact market condition should be cross-referenced against comparable historical outcomes for these clubs in equivalent circumstances.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official Premier League communications regarding squad availability in the weeks preceding the fixture. Fixture congestion, European commitments, and final-day implications for European places or relegation form the primary catalysts affecting probability movement. Any announcement regarding managerial changes, key player injuries, or revised scheduling would materially shift the order book. The settlement window's 13:00 UTC closure means trading activity will remain active until the match concludes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premierleague.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$78K in lifetime turnover and $945K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $76K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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