Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Mumbai Indians and Sunrisers Hyderabad scheduled for 2026-04-29 in Indian Premier League. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Mumbai Indians will be considered correct if Mumbai Indians is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Sunrisers Hyderabad will be considered correct if Sunrisers Hyderabad is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| MUM | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| SUN | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Mumbai Indians face Sunrisers Hyderabad on 29 April 2026 in the Indian Premier League. This market requires both conditions to occur simultaneously: Mumbai Indians must win the coin toss and then win the match itself. The settlement relies on official records from ESPN Cricinfo, making it a compound probability event where each outcome is binary but dependent on sequential occurrences.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the extreme rarity of such dual outcomes in isolation. Historically, winning the toss provides a modest advantage in T20 cricket—typically worth 2–4 percentage points in win probability—but does not determine match outcomes. Mumbai Indians' toss-win rate across IPL history sits around 50%, whilst their overall win rate hovers near 48%. The conjunction of both events occurring creates a probability substantially lower than either alone, explaining why the market currently shows no meaningful liquidity or backing for this outcome.
Traders should monitor team composition announcements and pitch reports closer to match day, as these influence both toss decisions and match performance. Venue conditions at the scheduled ground will shape captain preferences at the toss, particularly regarding whether to bat or bowl first. Recent IPL form, injury updates, and weather forecasts in the days preceding 29 April will provide concrete data points. The settlement window closes 6 May 2026, allowing time for official confirmation of both toss and match results via ESPN Cricinfo's published records.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: