Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Bundesliga game between FC Bayern München and 1. FC Heidenheim 1846, scheduled for May 2, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 match originally scheduled for May 2, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 2-3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-3 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Bayern München will face Heidenheim in a Bundesliga fixture on 2 May 2026, with settlement determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's current assessment of this specific scoreline outcome, though the exact score in question is not specified in available documentation. This probability formation depends on the depth and activity of the order book at any given moment; thin liquidity or wide spreads can produce extreme probabilities that don't necessarily reflect underlying match dynamics.
Bayern's historical dominance in the Bundesliga provides context for evaluating scoreline probabilities. The club has won the league title in recent seasons and typically generates substantial goal differentials against lower-placed opponents. Heidenheim, promoted to the Bundesliga relatively recently, has competed respectably but faces a significant quality gap against elite sides. Historical head-to-head records and seasonal goal-scoring patterns for both clubs inform how traders should calibrate expectations around specific scorelines, particularly whether outcomes cluster around narrow Bayern victories or more emphatic margins.
Traders should monitor team news regarding injuries or suspensions closer to the fixture date, as Bayern's availability of key attacking players directly influences expected goal output. Fixture congestion in May—potentially affecting squad rotation decisions—and any late-season form shifts warrant attention. Polymarket's order book will likely show greater activity and tighter spreads as the match date approaches, potentially shifting current extreme probabilities as more sophisticated traders price in match-specific information.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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