Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Scottish Premiership game between Celtic FC and Heart of Midlothian FC, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC match originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 4% YES | 97% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
Celtic FC will face Heart of Midlothian FC in a Scottish Premiership fixture on 16 May 2026. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with any scoreline not explicitly listed settling as "Any Other Score." The 6% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the combined likelihood of a specific outcome materialising, with the current pricing suggesting that exact-score predictions remain heavily fragmented across numerous possible results.
Exact-score markets in football typically concentrate probability mass around the most common outcomes: 1–0, 2–1, and 2–0 results account for a substantial share of all matches played. Celtic's historical dominance in Scottish football—they have won the league in 14 of the past 15 seasons—suggests they are favoured to win, but Heart of Midlothian's defensive record and Celtic's variable goal-scoring patterns across different fixtures mean that pinpointing a precise scoreline carries inherent uncertainty. The 6% probability reflects the dispersal of conviction across dozens of possible exact scores rather than weakness in Celtic's chances of victory overall.
Traders should monitor team news and injury updates in the weeks preceding the fixture, particularly regarding key attacking and defensive personnel. Fixture congestion late in the Scottish Premiership season may affect squad rotation and fatigue levels. The timing at 7:30 AM ET (12:30 PM BST) is unusual for a domestic league match and warrants confirmation closer to the date, as schedule changes could affect player availability or match conditions. Recent form, particularly Celtic's goal-scoring efficiency in their final fixtures, will inform whether tighter or more open scorelines become more probable.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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