Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Thursday, June 4, 2026 between Slovenia and Cyprus.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Slovenia | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Draw (Slovenia vs. Cyprus) | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Cyprus | 47% YES | 54% NO |
Slovenia and Cyprus will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Thursday, 4 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Slovenia's victory at 47 per cent implied probability, reflecting a relatively tight match expectation despite Slovenia's higher ranking in official FIFA standings. This probability formation sits between a draw and a Cyprus win, suggesting the market perceives meaningful uncertainty around the outcome.
Historically, Slovenia has held a competitive edge over Cyprus in direct matchups and broader competitive context. Slovenia qualified for the 2010 World Cup and has maintained consistent European qualification campaigns, whilst Cyprus has rarely progressed beyond qualifying rounds. However, friendly matches often produce atypical results due to squad rotation, fixture congestion, and reduced tactical intensity compared to competitive play. The 47 per cent probability for Slovenia reflects this uncertainty inherent to friendlies rather than a fundamental reassessment of relative strength.
Traders should monitor team news and squad announcements in the weeks preceding 4 June, particularly regarding injury status and player availability for both sides. The timing—mid-year friendlies ahead of potential summer tournaments—typically sees nations field experimental lineups or rest key players. Recent fixture congestion in domestic leagues may influence selection decisions. Settlement occurs at 16:00 UTC on match day, allowing for live information flow until kickoff. Any late withdrawals or unexpected squad changes could shift the order book materially, as would confirmation of which players each federation prioritises for the fixture.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Slovenia vs. Cyprus" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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