Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? | 3% YES | 97% NO |
A natural meteoroid striking Earth's atmosphere with explosive force equivalent to 1,000 kilotons of TNT or greater would rank among the most significant impact events in recorded history. The 1908 Tunguska impact in Siberia released roughly 10–15 megatons; the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor over Russia generated approximately 0.5 megatons. Events at or above the 1-megaton threshold occur on geological timescales measured in centuries, though smaller impacts happen more frequently and are detected with increasing regularity by modern monitoring systems.
The 3% implied probability reflected in Polymarket's order book sits at the lower end of scientific estimates for a 1-megaton strike within any given calendar year. Historical impact frequency data suggests annual probabilities in the range of 0.5–2%, though uncertainty bands are wide. NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office and the Minor Planet Center maintain catalogues of near-Earth objects, with detection capabilities improving substantially over the past two decades. The NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, which will serve as the primary resolution source, has recorded roughly 600 confirmed bolide events since 1988, with only a handful exceeding 100 kilotons.
Traders should monitor announcements from NASA's Planetary Defense initiatives and any updates to near-Earth object tracking programmes. The European Space Agency's Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre also publishes impact probability assessments. No scheduled major celestial events are anticipated to significantly alter baseline risk during 2026, meaning the market's probability will largely reflect consensus estimates of natural impact frequency rather than specific identified threats.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$106K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $532 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 3%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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