Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Ethena hit in May?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 0.24 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↑ 0.16 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| ↓ 0.08 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| ↑ 0.32 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↑ 0.20 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| ↑ 0.12 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 0.04 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↑ 0.28 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Ethena (ENA) reaching a specific price target during May represents a volatile outcome given the token's historical trading range and current market capitalisation. The 3% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism among active traders that ENA will hit this threshold within the settlement window. Order book depth and recent trading activity suggest the probability has been formed through consistent sell-side pressure, with traders pricing in the difficulty of achieving such a move amid broader cryptocurrency market conditions.
Comparable cases in prediction markets show that single-month price targets for mid-cap tokens typically require either significant positive catalysts or sustained momentum from preceding months. ENA's volatility profile and liquidity characteristics differ materially from larger assets, meaning price discovery can be rapid but also subject to thin-book dynamics. Historical precedent suggests that tokens with similar market positions rarely achieve outsized monthly moves without announcement-driven events or broader market rallies.
Traders monitoring this market should track Ethena's protocol developments, particularly any updates to its staking mechanisms or partnerships with major exchanges. Recent cryptocurrency market sentiment and Bitcoin's price action will likely dominate directional pressure. Regulatory announcements affecting stablecoin issuers or yield-bearing token products could materially shift probability, as could any significant shifts in total value locked across Ethena's ecosystem. The settlement window extending to June 2026 allows for extended price discovery, though the May-specific constraint remains the binding factor for this market.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Ethena hit in May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$806 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for recurring contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $92 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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