Trade: Yellow FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Opened 19 February 2026 · Settles 1 January 2028 · 10 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Yellow's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Yellow (https://x.com/Yellow) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $29K
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $0

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Market outcomes

$100M	100% YES	0% NO
$400M	0% YES	100% NO
$800M	0% YES	100% NO
$50M	100% YES	0% NO
$200M	100% YES	0% NO
$300M	0% YES	100% NO
$600M	0% YES	100% NO

Market context

Yellow, a decentralised finance protocol, is preparing to launch its governance token with a fully diluted valuation threshold specified in this market's title. The market will resolve based on whether the token's FDV—calculated by multiplying total supply by the price 24 hours after public trading begins—exceeds that threshold. Resolution hinges on the token achieving active, public transferability and tradeability, with the most liquid price source determining the settlement value.

The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptionally high confidence in Yellow's launch mechanics or limited order book depth on Polymarket at present. Historical token launches show wide variance in initial FDV outcomes, with many projects trading well below their pre-launch valuations within 24 hours due to unlock schedules, market conditions, and initial selling pressure. Comparable governance token launches have frequently seen FDV compression in the first day as early participants realise positions, suggesting the current certainty warrants scrutiny against typical market behaviour.

Traders should monitor Yellow's official announcements regarding exact launch timing, token supply figures, and initial liquidity provisions across exchanges. The settlement window closes 1 January 2028, providing substantial time for the launch event itself, though the critical measurement point remains the 4:00 PM ET mark on day one. Any delays in achieving public tradeability, disputes over which price source represents "most liquid," or unexpected changes to token supply mechanics could all affect resolution, making pre-launch communications from the Yellow team essential tracking points.

Wikipedia Context

Yellow fever
Yellow fever is a viral disease of typically short duration. In most cases, symptoms include fever, chills, loss of appetite, nausea, muscle pains—particularly in the back—and headaches. Symptoms typically improve within five days. In about 15% of people, within a day of improving the fever recurs, abdominal pain occurs and liver damage begins, causing yello
Yellow River
The Yellow River, also known as Huanghe, is the second-longest river in China and the sixth-longest river system on Earth, with an estimated length of 5,464 km (3,395 mi) and a drainage basin of 795,000 km2 (307,000 sq mi). Beginning in the Bayan Har Mountains, the river flows generally eastwards before entering the 1,500 km (930 mi) long Ordos Loop, which r
Yellow vests protests
The yellow vests protests or yellow-jacket protests were a series of populist, grassroots weekly protests in France that began on 17 November 2018 and ended on 28 June 2020.
Yellowfin tuna
The yellowfin tuna is a species of tuna found in pelagic waters of tropical and subtropical oceans worldwide.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Yellow FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$29K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for pre market contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Yellow FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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