Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Unit (https://hyperunit.xyz/) officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Unit, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31, 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| December 31, 2027 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
Unit, a blockchain infrastructure platform focused on programmable payments, has not yet announced plans for a native token launch. The market settles on whether such a token becomes actively tradeable by 31 December 2025, with mere announcements insufficient for resolution—the token must achieve public transferability and trading functionality. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects minimal trader conviction that this event occurs within the specified timeframe.
Comparable cases in the blockchain infrastructure space show varied tokenisation timelines. Platforms like Stripe and Square took years before introducing native tokens, whilst others launched within 18–24 months of achieving product-market fit. The absence of any public tokenisation roadmap from Unit, combined with the relatively short remaining window, explains the nil probability. Traders should note that infrastructure platforms often delay token launches pending regulatory clarity and sufficient user adoption to justify token utility.
Key catalysts include any official announcements from Unit's leadership regarding tokenomics or launch schedules, regulatory developments affecting payment tokens, and evidence of institutional adoption driving demand for governance or utility mechanisms. Recent funding rounds or partnership announcements could signal accelerated development timelines. The market's zero probability suggests traders view a 2025 launch as improbable given Unit's current trajectory and the engineering complexity required to launch a functioning, tradeable token alongside existing product operations.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Unit launch a token by ___ ?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$73K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for pre market contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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