Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 9 12:00 PM ET to May 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <40 | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| 40-64 | 61% YES | 40% NO |
| 65-89 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| 90-114 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 115-139 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 140-164 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 165-189 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 190-214 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks the volume of posts Elon Musk publishes on X during a 48-hour window spanning 9–11 May 2026. Only primary feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count; replies and community notes are excluded. The settlement mechanism captures posts deleted within approximately five minutes, treating them as valid contributions to the final tally.
Musk's posting frequency on X has historically varied between 5–15 posts per day, though periods of intense engagement around product launches, regulatory announcements, or market volatility have pushed daily counts significantly higher. The current 30% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a threshold that appears calibrated to above-average activity levels. Comparable windows during non-event periods typically see 8–12 posts; the crowd's pricing suggests traders expect either baseline or moderately elevated activity during this specific 48-hour span.
No major Tesla earnings announcements, SpaceX launches, or scheduled regulatory filings are publicly confirmed for 9–11 May 2026. Traders should monitor whether any unexpected developments emerge—product reveals, acquisition news, or significant market movements—that could trigger elevated posting behaviour. Musk's engagement patterns have also shown sensitivity to cryptocurrency price movements and broader tech sector volatility. The order book currently reflects uncertainty around whether external catalysts will materialise during this window, with the 30% probability indicating the crowd assigns roughly 70% odds to below-threshold posting activity.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/elonmusk. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Elon Musk # tweets May 9 - May 11, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$153K in lifetime turnover and $118K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $117K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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