Trade: Nothing Ever Happens: May
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US x Iran permanent peace deal - Iran leadership change - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US military action against Cuba - US confirms that aliens exist - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $16K
- Total Volume
- $75K
- 24h Volume
- $11K
- Open Interest
- $27K
Market outcomes
| Nothing Ever Happens: May | 78% YES | 23% NO |
Market context
This market aggregates six distinct geopolitical and commodity scenarios across a sixteen-month window. The crowd is currently pricing a 75% probability that none of these events materialise by end-May 2026—a baseline assumption of continued status quo across US-Iran relations, Russian military posture, Cuban affairs, oil markets, extraterrestrial disclosure, and Iranian domestic politics. The order book reflects this skew towards "Nothing", with tighter spreads on the YES side as traders price in the relative rarity of such concurrent disruptions.
Historical precedent suggests markets of this type tend to compress towards the "no event" outcome when multiple independent conditions must be satisfied. The 2011 Libyan intervention, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine each represented singular, high-impact events that markets had assigned low probabilities beforehand. Compound event markets—requiring any one of several outcomes—typically trade higher than individual event markets, yet the 75% "Nothing" probability here reflects the genuine difficulty of coordinating six separate catalysts within eighteen months.
Near-term catalysts centre on Iranian domestic succession (Supreme Leader Khamenei is 85), US-Iran nuclear negotiations resuming or collapsing, and crude oil price movements tied to OPEC+ production decisions and geopolitical supply shocks. The US election cycle through November 2024 may shift foreign policy calculus. WTI crude currently trades around $75–80 per barrel; reaching $150 would require either major supply disruption or demand shock. Russian military activity remains the highest-probability trigger given ongoing Ukraine dynamics, though NATO article 5 invocation remains a distinct threshold. Traders should monitor State Department announcements, OPEC meetings, and Iranian clerical succession developments.
Wikipedia Context
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Nothing Ever Happens on the Moon
"Nothing Ever Happens on the Moon" is a science fiction short story by American writer Robert A. Heinlein, published in April and May 1949 in Boys' Life, a magazine of the Boy Scouts of America, who jointly hold copyright with Heinlein, dated 1976. The story is about a boy who tries to become an Eagle Scout on the Moon. It is approximately 30 pages long as c
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Chud (pejorative)In internet culture, chud is a pejorative term for someone with far-right political views. The term is often paired with the Chudjak, a variant of the Wojak. It is commonly used as an insult in leftist circles but is sometimes employed by the far-right to relate to one another. In non-political cases, it is used to mean a foolish or unpleasant person and is
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Nothing Ever Happens: May" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 78% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $128 if YES resolves true — a 28% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$75K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for parlays contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $11K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Nothing Ever Happens: May"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 78%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Nothing Ever Happens: May"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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