Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | 68% YES | 32% NO |
OpenAI and Anthropic, the two largest private artificial intelligence companies by valuation, may pursue public listings within the next three years. OpenAI's valuation reached approximately $157 billion following its November 2024 funding round, whilst Anthropic was valued at $60 billion in its September 2024 Series C. The current Polymarket order book implies a 68% probability that OpenAI will complete an IPO first, reflecting market participants' assessment that the larger, more established company faces fewer obstacles to public markets.
Historical precedent suggests that larger, more mature companies typically reach public markets ahead of smaller competitors, though valuation alone does not determine IPO timing. The trajectory of comparable technology companies—including Meta, which went public at a $104 billion valuation, and Stripe, which remains private despite a $95 billion valuation—demonstrates that capital availability, regulatory environment, and management preference shape listing decisions more than size. Both companies have stated intentions to eventually go public, but neither has announced concrete timelines.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through the settlement window. Regulatory developments affecting AI governance could accelerate or delay either company's public market entry. Changes in macroeconomic conditions and equity market appetite for technology stocks will influence IPO windows. Recent statements from OpenAI's leadership regarding governance restructuring and potential public ownership models merit attention, as do any announcements from Anthropic regarding capital raises or strategic partnerships that might signal IPO proximity. Quarterly funding announcements and executive commentary during industry conferences will provide the most reliable signals for reassessing probabilities.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$54K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for openai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $46 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 68%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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