Trade: New Jersey Senate Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $27K
- Total Volume
- $18K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Democrat | 94% YES | 6% NO |
| Person C | — | |
| Republican | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Person B | — | |
| Person F | — | |
| Person H | — | |
| Person A | — | |
| Person G | — | |
Market context
The 2026 midterm election will determine New Jersey's next U.S. Senator, with the current Polymarket order book pricing a Democratic victory at 95% implied probability. New Jersey has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992 and maintains a Democratic voter registration advantage of roughly 700,000 over Republicans. The state's partisan lean and demographic composition—urban centres in the northeast corridor, substantial suburban populations, and a relatively small rural base—have consistently favoured Democratic Senate candidates in recent cycles.
Historical precedent suggests the 95% probability reflects structural Democratic strength in the state. In 2018, Democrat Bob Menendez won re-election with 54% of the vote despite a prior corruption indictment. In 2024, Democrat Cory Booker secured 52% against a well-funded Republican challenger. Both victories occurred in midterm or general election environments where national conditions varied considerably, yet the Democratic margin held. A Republican Senate victory in New Jersey would require either a significant national Republican wave, substantial Democratic candidate weakness, or both.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements expected in late 2025 and early 2026, as nominee quality and campaign resources will shape the final margin. National economic conditions and approval ratings heading into November 2026 will influence turnout and swing-voter behaviour. Any unexpected developments regarding the Democratic incumbent's political standing—should an incumbent seek re-election—could shift the probability, though such scenarios remain unlikely given current state dynamics.
Wikipedia Context
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New JerseyNew Jersey is a state located in both the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the United States. Located at the geographic hub of the heavily urbanized Northeast megalopolis, it is bordered to the northwest, north, and northeast by New York State; on its east, southeast, and south by the Atlantic Ocean; on its west by the Delaware River and Pennsylvania
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New Jersey TurnpikeThe New Jersey Turnpike (NJTP) is a system of controlled-access toll roads in the U.S. state of New Jersey. The turnpike is maintained by the New Jersey Turnpike Authority (NJTA). The 117.2-mile (188.6 km) mainline's southern terminus is at the Delaware Memorial Bridge on Interstate 295 (I-295) in Pennsville Township. Its northern terminus is at an interchan
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New Jersey DevilsThe New Jersey Devils are a professional ice hockey team based in Newark, New Jersey. The Devils compete in the National Hockey League (NHL) as a member of the Metropolitan Division in the Eastern Conference. The club was founded as the Kansas City Scouts in Kansas City, Missouri, in 1974. The Scouts moved to Denver in 1976 and became the Colorado Rockies. I
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New Jersey Institute of TechnologyNew Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT) is a public research university in Newark, New Jersey, United States, with a graduate-degree-granting satellite campus in Jersey City. Founded in 1881 with the support of local industrialists and inventors, especially Edward Weston, NJIT opened as Newark Technical School in 1885 with 88 students. As of fall 2022 the
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "New Jersey Senate Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$18K in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for midterms contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "New Jersey Senate Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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