Trade: Minnesota Governor Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $24K
- Total Volume
- $50K
- 24h Volume
- $10
- Open Interest
- $7K
Market outcomes
| Democrat | 94% YES | 7% NO |
| Option A | — | |
| Option C | — | |
| Option E | — | |
| Option G | — | |
| Option I | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Republican | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Market context
Minnesota will elect a new governor in November 2026, with the Democratic and Republican nominees competing for the office currently held by Democrat Tim Walz, who is serving as Vice President-elect under Kamala Harris. The 94% implied probability on the YES side reflects market confidence that one of these two major-party candidates will prevail, with the order book pricing in minimal likelihood of a third-party or independent victor. This probability formation accounts for Minnesota's recent electoral history and structural factors favouring established parties in statewide races.
Minnesota has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1976, though gubernatorial races have shown greater volatility. In 2022, Walz defeated Republican Scott Jensen with 52% of the vote in a competitive race, whilst the state elected Republican Norm Coleman to the Senate in 2014. The 94% probability reflects the historical rarity of non-major-party candidates winning gubernatorial elections nationally; since 2000, only Jesse Ventura's 1998 Minnesota victory and a handful of other cases have broken the two-party pattern. Current market pricing suggests traders assess the probability of a successful independent or third-party campaign as roughly 6%.
Key catalysts include formal candidate announcements from both parties, expected through 2025 and into early 2026, alongside any significant shifts in Minnesota's political composition or national midterm dynamics. The Republican primary process and any potential Democratic primary challenge to a successor candidate will shape the field. Traders should monitor polling releases and fundraising disclosures as the election approaches, with the settlement window closing on 3 November 2026 following AP, Fox News, and NBC calls.
Wikipedia Context
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Governor of MinnesotaThe governor of Minnesota is the head of government of the state of Minnesota, leading the state's executive branch. Forty people have been governor of Minnesota, and previously three of Minnesota Territory. Alexander Ramsey, the first territorial governor, also served as state governor several years later. State governors are elected to office by popular vo
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Minnesota Governor's ResidenceThe Minnesota Governor's Residence, informally referred to as the Governor's Mansion, serves as the official home of the governor of the U.S. state of Minnesota. The house, located at 1006 Summit Avenue in Saint Paul, is on 1.5 acres (0.61 ha) of land. The building is slightly more than 16,000 square feet (1,500 m2) in size.
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1998 Minnesota gubernatorial electionThe 1998 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 1998. Reform Party candidate Jesse Ventura, the former mayor of Brooklyn Park and a former professional wrestler, won office, defeating Republican St. Paul mayor Norm Coleman and DFL state attorney general Skip Humphrey. He succeeded Republican incumbent Arne Carlson. Ventura's victory as a
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List of governors of Minnesota
The governor of Minnesota is the head of government of the U.S. state of Minnesota. The governor is the head of the executive branch of Minnesota's state government and is charged with enforcing state laws.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Minnesota Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$50K in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for midterms contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Minnesota Governor Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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