Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The MSI 2026 (Mid-Season Invitational) is scheduled to take place from June 26 to July 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to which teams qualify for MSI 2026. If the listed team officially qualifies as one of the teams invited to MSI 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Ties in standings will be broken according to the official LoL Esports rules. If MSI 2026 is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or if the official list of MSI 2026 participants is not published before August 1, 2026, ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the LoL Esports website (https://lolesports.com).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| G2 Esports | 78% YES | 22% NO |
| Karmine Corp | 66% YES | 34% NO |
| BNK FEARX | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| T1 | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| GenG | 71% YES | 29% NO |
| Lyon | 63% YES | 38% NO |
| LOUD | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Movistar KOI | 12% YES | 88% NO |
The Mid-Season Invitational 2026 will run from 26 June to 12 July, with qualification determined by regional league performance across the major regions (LEC, LCS, LCK, LPL, PCS, and wildcards). Teams earn MSI spots by finishing in top positions within their domestic leagues during the spring split, with exact qualification slots varying by region. The current 78% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects high confidence that the tournament proceeds as scheduled and that at least one team from a major region qualifies without disruption.
Historical precedent suggests MSI tournaments rarely face cancellation once spring splits conclude. MSI 2020 was relocated due to pandemic constraints but proceeded with modified format; MSI 2021 and 2022 operated normally. The 22-point gap between current probability and certainty accounts for tail risks: tournament postponement, unforeseen circumstances affecting the official participant list publication deadline (1 August 2026, ET), or regional league disruptions that prevent standard qualification. Regional league schedules typically conclude by May, providing a two-month buffer before the tournament.
Key catalysts include confirmation of spring split schedules across all major regions by early 2026, any announcements regarding MSI 2026 venue or format changes, and the official publication of the participant list before the August deadline. Traders should monitor Riot Games' esports announcements and regional league standings from March onwards, as unexpected league cancellations or significant rule changes could affect qualification pathways.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which teams will qualify to MSI 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$69K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for league of legends contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $34 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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