Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures whether BNB's price on the Chainlink data feed will be higher or equal at 4:25PM ET on 2 May 2026 compared to 4:20PM ET that same day. The five-minute window is narrow enough that price movement depends almost entirely on intraday volatility and order flow rather than fundamental shifts. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either a structural imbalance in liquidity or genuine conviction that downward pressure dominates this specific interval.
Five-minute price windows for major cryptocurrencies historically resolve with near-random outcomes when no scheduled events occur during the period. BNB has shown typical intraday volatility of 0.5–2% across five-minute candles during normal trading conditions, meaning both directions remain plausible from a statistical standpoint. The extreme probability skew suggests either thin order book depth on the "Up" side or recent price momentum that traders expect to continue downward through the settlement window.
Traders monitoring this market should track whether any exchange listings, regulatory announcements, or Binance-specific news breaks between now and early May 2026. Chainlink's BNB/USD feed aggregates multiple price sources, so flash crashes or temporary exchange-specific dislocations could influence settlement. The five-minute resolution window also means that any major market-moving event would need to occur precisely during that interval to shift the outcome—a low-probability scenario that may explain the current pricing disconnect between the crowd's expectation and the mathematical possibility of upward movement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$606 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for hide from new contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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