Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $355 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $360 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $365 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $370 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $375 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $380 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $385 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $390 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market settles on the official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on Friday, 9 May 2026. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects traders pricing in a near-certainty that the stock will close above the specified threshold for that week. Such extreme probabilities typically indicate either a strike price set well below current trading levels or market consensus around an exceptionally strong near-term outlook for the equity.
Historical precedent suggests that when large-cap tech stocks trade with such compressed probability ranges, the threshold itself is the critical variable. GOOGL has demonstrated substantial volatility around earnings announcements and regulatory developments, yet sustained rallies above key resistance levels often persist when fundamental momentum aligns with technical positioning. The current 100% reading warrants scrutiny of whether the strike represents a realistic floor or reflects insufficient liquidity in the order book to price meaningful downside risk.
Traders should monitor developments in the week preceding settlement, particularly any announcements regarding antitrust proceedings, quarterly earnings guidance, or macroeconomic shifts affecting advertising spend. The US markets observe Memorial Day on Monday, 26 May 2026, which does not affect the settlement week but may influence volatility patterns in the preceding sessions. Alphabet's exposure to AI infrastructure spending and cloud services revenue will likely remain focal points for institutional positioning through early May. Any material shift in market sentiment around these themes could test the current probability assessment, though the compressed odds suggest the market has already priced in substantial upside conviction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 4 above___?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for googl contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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