Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Party for Freedom (PVV) in the House of Representatives as a result of this election. If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Party for Freedom (PVV). This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ≤26 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 27–29 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 30–32 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ≥33 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Dutch ruling coalition fractured on 3 June 2025, triggering a political reset that will culminate in parliamentary elections within the next year. The Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, has been central to recent Dutch politics following strong performances in previous electoral cycles. This market tracks the precise seat count the PVV will secure in the House of Representatives following the forthcoming election, with settlement contingent on voting occurring by 31 July 2026. The current order book reflects 100% implied probability, suggesting traders are pricing in certainty that an election will occur within the settlement window.
The PVV's seat count carries particular weight given Wilders' positioning within coalition negotiations. In the 2023 elections, the PVV won 17 seats despite leading in vote share, a discrepancy shaped by the Dutch proportional representation system and other parties' initial reluctance to form coalitions with the party. Historical precedent suggests significant variance in seat outcomes depending on campaign dynamics and coalition arithmetic. The probability distribution across seat brackets will depend heavily on polling trajectories and whether the PVV participates in the next government formation.
Traders should monitor official election scheduling announcements from the Dutch government, which typically occur weeks before voting. Polling releases will provide real-time signals on PVV support levels, whilst coalition negotiations between parties post-election will clarify the political landscape. The settlement window extends to mid-2026, providing ample time for electoral processes to complete, though any unexpected delays in government formation could compress the timeline significantly.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Netherlands parliamentary election: PVV seats" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$624K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for global elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 8 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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