Trade: Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for May 19 at 10:00PM ET: If the Toronto Tempo win, the market will resolve to "Toronto Tempo". If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $577
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury | 40% YES | 61% NO |
Market context
The WNBA regular season matchup between Toronto Tempo and Phoenix Mercury is scheduled for 19 May at 22:00 ET, with settlement occurring by 02:00 UTC on 20 May. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 40% implied probability for a Toronto victory, pricing the Tempo as underdogs despite their status as a newer franchise entering the 2026 season. This probability formation suggests market participants are weighting Phoenix's historical strength and roster composition more heavily than Toronto's potential competitive positioning.
Phoenix Mercury have established themselves as a consistent playoff contender over recent seasons, with Diana Taurasi continuing to anchor their roster. Toronto, as an expansion franchise, enters 2026 with significant roster uncertainty and limited track record against established opponents. Historical expansion team performance in the WNBA shows mixed early-season results, though context varies considerably based on draft capital allocation and coaching stability. The 40% probability for Toronto reflects reasonable scepticism about an expansion side's capacity to compete immediately against a veteran-led Phoenix squad.
Key variables affecting settlement include injury status updates in the days preceding the fixture, any late roster adjustments, and confirmation that the game proceeds as scheduled. WNBA scheduling occasionally shifts due to venue conflicts or unforeseen circumstances, though cancellation without rescheduling remains rare. Traders should monitor official league announcements and team injury reports through 18 May, as these typically drive material probability shifts in the final trading hours before tipoff.
Wikipedia Context
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Toronto TempoThe Toronto Tempo are a Canadian professional basketball team based in Toronto. The Tempo compete in the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) as a member of the Eastern Conference, and started playing in May 2026. They play their home games at Coca-Cola Coliseum. They are the first WNBA team located outside of the United States and the first in Can
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Toronto Typographical Union
The Toronto Typographical Union (TTU) was an early Canadian trade union in the printing industry. First organized in 1832, it came to prominence in 1872 when it organized a major strike in Toronto. Membership declined in the mid- to late 20th century as printing turned digital. By 1994, TTU had been absorbed by the Communications, Energy and Paperworkers Uni
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2006 Ontario terrorism plot
The 2006 Ontario terrorism case was the plotting of a series of attacks against targets in Southern Ontario, Canada, and the June 2, 2006 counter-terrorism raids in and around the Greater Toronto Area that resulted in the arrest of 14 adults and 4 youths . These individuals have been characterized as having been inspired by al-Qaeda.
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Demographics of Toronto
The demographics of Toronto, Ontario, Canada make Toronto one of the most multicultural and multiracial cities in the world. In 2021, 57.0 percent of the residents of the metropolitan area belonged to a visible minority group, compared with 51.4 percent in 2016, and 13.6 percent in 1981. Toronto also has established ethnic neighbourhoods such as the multiple
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wnba.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 40% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $250 if YES resolves true — a 150% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $577 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 40%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wnba.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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